Predictions Or Simply History Repeating Once Again

At the risk of sounding like Goldilocks crying wolf repeatedly, I thought it might be more bold of me to simply say when the wolf is coming so everyone can be on guard.  No further shout-outs are necessary.  Oh, if you're not aware of what is so disconcerting to me, then note it is the perilous economic position of this country and the world at present.  My fear is the wolf that appeared during the Great Recession will surely morph into something even more unsettling before this situation finally corrects for good. 

So, let me set forth my timeline for calamity in this country and let the masses draw their own conclusions over the coming years  At least with concrete dates and notable events, one can easily measure my win-loss record. 

Just to be clear, I'm not talking about college basketball bracketology here (although I finished in the top 97th percentile of Yahoo sports this past March Madness!).  I'm talking about the direction of our country, the world and how things might be coming at us that throw "normalcy" out the window like a feather on the dash of my buddy's convertible Porsche 911.  Keep in mind that we are creatures of habit so things not being normal might seem...well, a bit chaotic. 

As you might guess, there are many famous quotes about "predictions" especially how inaccurate they mostly are. Oh, and how those that do predict should hide in shame as they try to explain why their predictions fell short of their futuristic expectations. Hey, at least I didn't have to explain why Louisville mens team didn't win the championship! 

As one of the foundation builders of chaos theory once remarked: "It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all." So with that, I'll foresee here so I can blog down the road on my own wall of shame like so many before me.  I do believe everyone should be thinking of the future and being prepared differently from what we're accustom to.  It might make sense especially when the future has an eerie historical step-child like The Great Depression!

Many Wall street stockbrokers are aware we're in what is deemed a Secular Bear stock market which is just past 13 years in duration since the dot-com bust in 2000.  They also tend to know that historically these markets end badly.  We've had three Secular Bear markets since 1925.  The first being 1929 to 1942 and the second 1966 to 1982.  The first being approx. 13 years in duration, the second approx. 16 years in duration.

We are now reaching the topping phase for what I believe is the third down wave in many aspects of what is just starting to feel good.  The third down wave is sure to be the most painful and it will effect stocks, hard assets like real estate, commodities and peoples lives like nothing before we've ever experienced.  Without further ado:

1. Economic indicators turn bearishly negative by the end of summer 2014 (August 2014).
2. An official depression is declared beginning the fall of 2015 (October 2015).
3. The depression is officially declared over by the end of 2019 (December 2019).
4. A true leader of this country will take office and restore the dignity this once mighty nation has with the American people (January 2020).

Keep in mind that economists conveniently take a look back in time to "officially" declare the start and stop of economic periods such as these.  So, when the depression finally ends it won't be until much later in the year 2020 that everyone is informed.  And, it won't be until much later after that where the majority of us really start to feel better about our personal financial situations once again.  Mostly because we will be so thankful for what we have as little as what is left.  The end of this current Secular Bear market will be the longest on record of 19 years.

Next time we have a bull market in this country, I want everyone to simply accept the economic pain dictated by the following bear market as a normal consequence.  Don't let government do things to try to lessen the counter balancing payback.  I'll take my pain in small dozes rather than huge financial amputations like the one we'll be getting soon hereafter!