Friday, February 22, 2013

Government Math Needs Some Schooling

We have seen this time and time again whereby U.S. politicians and their inept political parties argue their positions and point fingers at the other side regarding budget deficits and the national debt.  We could surely solve the problem if the other side would just cooperate they say. Holy crap, seems no one in office made it past kindergarten math and no one wants to be truthful about the "true" state of this country.  They agree what we are doing is unsustainable but taking action is just not in their pre-school vocabulary.

Nearly every media article gives you a glimpse of the enormous problem we face.  Here's a math problem for a student - what's the national debt in four years under the sequester law if fully implemented by reading the below excerpt (without either party trying to water down its impact as we speak - which they are doing in earnest)?:

AP Tom Raum 2/22/13 Gov't downsizes amid GOP demands for more cuts: ...The federal budget deficit for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 is estimated to be $845 billion — the first time it's dropped below $1 trillion in five years. But it's on track to rise again as more and more baby boomers retire and qualify for federal benefits and as interest payments on the national debt keep going up. The national debt first inched past $1 trillion early in the Reagan administration and has grown in leaps and bounds ever since through both Democratic and Republican presidencies. It now stands at $16.6 trillion and is on a path toward soon becoming unsustainable, both parties agree. Unchecked, entitlement payments will add roughly $700 billion to the debt over the next four years. ... Under the sequester law, roughly $85 billion in federal spending would be slashed in the remaining seven months of this fiscal year and a total of $1.2 trillion in cuts over 10 years.

Answer: $16.6T + ($845B x 4) + $700B - (($1.2T / 10) x 4) = $20.2T

According to the U.S. National Debt Clock on this day in 2017 the answer is $22.6T.  Let's just say anyone with an answer above $20T gets an "A".  So, what does this all mean...politicians are squabbling about pennies when we have $100 bills at stake!  Austerity will come and it will be forced upon us...and it will be ugly.

I'm actually of the opinion that it has gone on too long and it is not possible to solve our national debt problem without default...yes, I'm talking about the U.S. defaulting on its debt obligations.  Of course, this is the "event of last resort" but it will take this action (effectively a negotiation of reduced principal amount for a sustainable long-term payment stream) to rightsize this sinking ship.

To this end, let all U.S. citizens stop being hypocrites and complaining about the spending in Washington all the while buying the "safehaven" of U.S. Treasury's in our IRA's, 401K's and other investment accounts.  Sell your investment funds that even dab in these instruments.  Sell your US dollars for safer currencies like C$, A$ and Swiss franc.  Let's tell the politicians their math stinks and their debt instruments including the fiat US$ are worthless like a piece of gum stuck under the desk!

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